By Emir Sader on August 28, 2023, from Rio de Janeiro
Friends, journalists and others, ask, more and more constantly, how Argentina is seen in Brazil. There are so many things to talk about, but it is clear that they are now referring to Milei, the lead vote getter in the Argentine primaries.
Of course, they are not looking for reasons to explain the phenomenon, because the Argentines themselves are in a better position than anyone else to analyze and understand. They ask, deep down, how is it possible to avoid, overcome, prevent such a brutal phenomenon. And if such a situation were to arise, how would the possibility of electing someone like that be seen from the outside, how would Argentina be seen and, in the case of Brazil, how would Brazilians and Argentines coexist.
It is enough for that vote to happen, regardless of whether he will win in October or not. It is enough that a significant proportion of Argentines have expressed their preference for Milei, for us to be forced to think about the brutal possibility of someone like him, who proposes what he proposes, who says what he says, being elected president of Argentina.
In the end, Brazil has already been governed by Bolsonaro. Something that, in a way, can be compared to what Milei could be, in case he wins.
The first difference is that Bolsonaro was only elected in a situation of clear illegality. As the Judiciary recognizes today – with the legal recognition of Dilma Rousseff’s innocence -, the lawfare was a process that dragged on with Lula’s imprisonment, his conviction and his impediment to be a candidate for the Presidency of the Republic.
If it had not been so, Brazil would not have suffered all the sufferings it has undergone for 7 years. But this did not prevent Bolsonaro from being elected, from having a very high vote – lower than he would have had if the elections had been held legally – and currently he maintains a proportion of followers in society, although that number is decreasing.
All this, so that we keep in mind that the two countries live or have lived similar circumstances and that they have to understand and face the phenomenon. Bolsonaro is definitely politically defeated, but Bolsonarism, as a phenomenon, although decreasing, has survived until now.
To have prevented this from happening in Brazil would have required a mostly democratic Judiciary, which was not the case at the time.
The then president of the Supreme Electoral Court presided over the Senate session that approved the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff. That same Judiciary decided that week for the innocence of Dilma Rousseff who, thus, should not have suffered impeachment.
Do not ask me why they acted this way: the head of the judges remains one of the unfathomable mysteries of our time.
There is no guarantee that Brazil will remain immune to Bolsonaro or another similar phenomenon. But, if we learn from the mistakes of the past, which allowed Bolsonarism to grow dangerously in society and institutions, then we will be able to defend ourselves to prevent it from happening again.
Since the degradation of the image of politics and politicians, with the consequence of the poor living conditions of the people, is among the reasons for the emergence and strengthening of the extreme right, we must attack these causes.
It can be said that today Brazil defends itself well against these phenomena, first of all because it has a president with great political legitimacy and who has managed, up to now, not only to safeguard, to a certain extent, the legitimacy of politics. But also because there is a government with positive results, in the growth of the economy, in the generation of jobs, in the reduction, although still small, of hunger, of misery, of inequalities.
Regarding the consequences for Brazil, there was already a concern that, in case a candidate of the traditional right wins, the economic relations between the two countries would not be affected, since both countries have an interest in maintaining the current exchanges.
The concerns would be at the political level, especially in international politics, where there would be major differences. But there were no concerns about Mercosur.
In Milei’s case, economic relations would be radically suspended, due to the very rare declaration of practically breaking off relations with China and Brazil. Argentina would leave Mercosur and would not join Brazil in other economic activities.
All in all, the two countries would never be so distant and even opposed to each other, since the fraternal embrace of Néstor Kirchner and Lula, which has initiated regional integration policies and closer and more fraternal relations between Brazil and Argentina.
Source: Pagina 12