By Alejandra Garcia on January 23, 2025
family members mourn the death of 4 Afro-Ecuadorian youth by the Ecuadorian military. source; CEPR
Ecuador stands on the brink of a pivotal moment as it heads into presidential elections on February 9, with 13 million people preparing to choose a new government for the 2025-2029 period. Voters will not only elect the next president but also select 137 members of the unicameral National Assembly.
Under Ecuador’s electoral laws, a second round will be avoided if a candidate secures more than 50% of the vote plus one, with a lead of at least 10 percentage points over their nearest rival. If no candidate meets these thresholds, a runoff election will take place on April 13.
Two key figures have emerged in this tense political climate. President Daniel Noboa, facing a waning popularity due to the country’s ongoing crises, is fighting to maintain his post amid growing discontent. His administration has come under fire for failing to address Ecuador’s rising insecurity, rampant inflation, a deepening energy crisis, and, more recently, the tragic killing of four youngsters by the military in the city of Taura.
It should be remembered that not only is Daniel Noboa a multi-millionaire but has a direct lineage to Ecuador’s encrusted oligarchy mainly through his father, Alvaro Noboa, a billionaire, the richest man in Ecuador who controls the Noboa Group of Companies and also Noboa Corporation which has more than 128 companies in Ecuador and around the world.
The campaign, with 16 presidential candidates including leftist Luisa Gonzalez and Indigenous leader Leonidas Iza, will end February 6, three days before the election.
Polls indicate that Noboa’s support is unstable at best, with many of his voters expressing frustration and discontent.
Meanwhile, González, the candidate from the left-wing Correista movement, is the frontrunner, according to polls. With the backing of her party, Revolución Ciudadana, González seeks to usher in a political shift back towards the left by resurrecting the social programs from Rafael Correa’s presidency (2007-2017). Her agenda includes focusing on energy transition, environmental sustainability through solar, wind, and hydroelectric projects, and tackling the nation’s security crisis.
The Road to Election Day in a Nation in Crisis
Ecuador is grappling with an alarming rise in insecurity. A recent Gallup poll shows that 73% of Ecuadorians feel unsafe going out at night, the highest figure in the country’s history. The surge in violence, fueled by rampant drug trafficking, has turned Ecuador into a critical node in the global cocaine trade. The country now holds the highest homicide rate in Latin America, with 47.2 murders per 100,000 people.
This security crisis has also exacerbated Ecuador’s economic goals. The country fell into recession in 2024, with its GDP dramatically falling by 1.5% after over three consecutive quarters of decline.
The ongoing energy crisis has contributed to this downturn, with power outages lasting up to 14 hours a day, disrupting daily life and damaging industrial productivity. Though scheduled outages were suspended in December, the underlying problems in the energy sector remain unresolved.
As the elections approach, Ecuadorians are fed up with the current administration’s handling of these crises, creating a volatile and uncertain political landscape. Citizens are demanding a drastic change, one that addresses the pressing issues of insecurity, economic stagnation, and energy shortages. The outcome of these elections will shape the country’s future—both politically and socially—as voters make their voices heard in this critical moment.
Like every election in Latin America electing a president who is not in the pocket of US is important in the regional paradigm and beyond.
Source: Resumen Latinoamericano – English