By Alejandra Garcia and Bill Hackwell on April 13, 2025
Luisa Gonzalez calls fraud in Ecuadorian elections.
Today Ecuadorians were called to the polls for the runoff elections, which pitted leftist candidate Luisa Gonzalez against incumbent President and Trump supported Daniel Noboa. The election day was marked by a series of setbacks, including complaints of irregularities, violations of democracy and the activation of a new state of emergency which allowed the most extreme militarization the country has ever experienced. In addition, the arrival of international observers was prohibited, which generated even more doubts about the transparency of the process.
Despite this complicated context, at the end of the day, the National Electoral Council (CNE) announced the victory of right-wing billionaire Daniel Noboa, which has raised questions about the veracity of the results. According to the CNE, with more than 90% of the ballots counted, Noboa would have obtained 55.94% of the votes, while Revolucion Ciudadana movement, candidate Luisa Gonzalez had received 44.06%.
Just on the surface those numbers are hard to believe considering the backing Gonzalez received after the first election in February from a number of other parties including the left leaning indigenous Pachakutik Plurinational Unity Movement; and yet her numbers went down in this round of voting.
Shortly after this announcement, Luisa Gonzalez, presidential candidate for the political movement Revolucion Ciudadana, expressed her rejection of the results. In a strong statement, she affirmed that she does not recognize the electoral result and denounced a fraud in the registration of votes, designed to benefit President Noboa.
“Ecuador is living a dictatorship. I refuse to recognize these results. I refuse to believe that a country chooses violence over change. How can these results they are showing be credible, in the midst of so many irregularities?” questioned Gonzalez. “Ecuador cannot continue to be governed by a president who only thinks about the enrichment of his family, and not about the path towards the definitive peace of the country. We must be united now more than ever”.
Gonzalez also made a call to the population, stating: “I refuse to believe that people prefer lies instead of the truth. We are going to ask for a recount of the votes and for the polls to be opened”.
Yesterday Noboa issued a presidential decree to close the borders making it impossible for international observers to attend. As if that was not enough Noboa ordered 45,000 of soldiers to be posted in the streets and in the polling stations themselves as a way of intimidation to voters who already live in a climate of violence. A delegation from the US based Black Alliance for Peace (BAP) delegation that had arrived earlier confirmed this overwhelming presence of the military during voting in Guayaquil, Ecuador’s largest city,especially in poor and AfroEcuadorian communities.
The situation in Ecuador remains tense, and the response of the international community and citizens will be crucial in the coming days. The demand for transparency and justice in the electoral process has become a clamor throughout the country, while Ecuadorians await a resolution that guarantees the integrity of their democracy.
How Ecuador Reached This Runoff Election
Last time Ecuador held elections, in 2023, the country’s national assembly had been dissolved and then-President Guillermo Lasso had faced potential impeachment for a corruption scandal involving embezzlement of public oil transport funds.
This led to a political crisis that saw snap presidential elections usher in Daniel Noboa, a multi-millionaire with a direct lineage to Ecuador’s encrusted oligarchy, mainly through his father, Alvaro Noboa, a billionaire, the richest man in Ecuador who controls the Noboa Group of Companies, and also Noboa Corporation, which has more than 128 companies in Ecuador and around the world. Up to that point, his political experience amounted to one term in the National Assembly.
Rooted Violence
Ecuador faces the 2025 elections in a context of violence and insecurity that has escalated alarmingly in recent years. The country closed 2024 with a rate of 38.76 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants, which places it among the most violent in the world. In total, 6,964 violent deaths were recorded, an average of one every hour and 15 minutes.
Although this figure represents a slight decrease compared to 2023, the most violent year in the country’s history, it still reflects a security crisis resulting from the growth of organized crime, prison massacres and institutional fragility.
Since 2020, starting with Lenin Moreno’s administration, at least 16 prison massacres have left hundreds of victims, many of them dismembered or burned, exposing the state’s inability to contain violence.
A Country Under Constant “States of Exceptions”
The government of Daniel Noboa, like his predecessors Lenín Moreno and Guillermo Lasso, has resorted to states of exception as a response to insecurity. In 2024, Ecuador lived more than 250 days under this measure, including the declaration of an “internal armed conflict” to confront gangs such as Los Choneros and Los Lobos, linked to international drug trafficking.
This decree allowed the Armed Forces to take control of prisons and public security, but also generated complaints of human rights abuses and violations. Cases such as that of four minors, Steven, Josué, Ismael and Saúl, detained, beaten and murdered in the custody of the Armed Forces, whose bodies were later found burned in the surroundings of the Taura Air Base, where they were taken after being arbitrarily detained, without evidence, after leaving a soccer game a short distance from their homes, according to what their parents later declared; have exacerbated criticism of the use of military forces in civilian functions.
Energy Crisis and Its Origins
Ecuador is facing one of the worst energy crises in its recent history, a situation that has not only transformed the daily lives of its citizens, but has also marked the political, economic and social situation of the country on the threshold of the 2025 general elections. With power outages of up to 14 hours a day, economic losses in the millions and a government struggling to regain control, uncertainty dominates the national scene.
The current crisis has multiple causes, among them, the lack of maintenance and investment in the country’s hydroelectric power plants, a problem that has been dragging on since the government of Lenín Moreno.
Added to this is a severe drought which, according to the government, is the worst in 60 years, and which has significantly reduced the generation capacity of hydroelectric power plants, the main energy suppliers in the country.
However, experts point out that the drought is not the only determining factor. While other countries in the region have faced similar scenarios, Ecuador is the only one that has experienced such prolonged daily blackouts. This, according to analysts, is due to poor government management, insufficient planning and the lack of implementation of alternative energy projects.
Economic and Social Impact
The effects of the blackouts, which commonly last for 14 hours a day, have been devastating. According to data from the Quito Chamber of Commerce, in just two months of outages, the industrial sector lost USD 4 billion, while the commercial sector reported a decrease of USD 3.5 billion. In total, economic losses amount to more than USD 9.5 billion since the rationing began in 2023.
The social impact has been no less alarming. Uncertainty about the timing of power cuts, unfulfilled government promises and the lack of clear information have generated an atmosphere of distrust. In addition, the energy crisis has led to massive layoffs, affecting key sectors such as manufacturing, agriculture and commerce. According to the Ministry of Labor, in September 2024, 3,647 termination notices were registered, 40% of them due to untimely dismissals.
The Political Management of the Crisis
The government of President Daniel Noboa has been at the center of the debate. After assuming power in a context of energy instability, his administration promised to solve the crisis by January 2025. However, experts assure that there are no technical figures to back up this claim. The president’s credibility has also been affected by the resignations of high-ranking officials, such as the Minister of Production and the Minister of Energy, who left their posts in the midst of the crisis. The lack of effective communication and the improvisation in the planning of the cuts have increased the perception of citizen discontent.
Migration, Unemployment and Insecurity: The Other Faces of the Crisis
The lack of employment and deteriorating economic conditions have driven an unprecedented wave of migration. Between January and July 2024, there was a migration deficit of almost 100,000 people who left the country and did not return, reflecting widespread discontent. This trend comes on top of a climate of insecurity exacerbated by drug trafficking, which has impacted both communities and the productive sector. According to the latest estimates by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Human Mobility, there are already more than 2.4 million Ecuadorians living outside the country, which represents about 10% of the population.
In an ominous sign of the increasing US backed militarization of Ecuador CNN has reported that mercenary military contractor and Blackwater founder Erik Prince joined in law enforcement operations on Saturday that included raids on homes in Guayaquil.
Source: Resumen Latinoamericano – English