In the Home Stretch of an Electoral Spectacle

By Raul Antonio Capote on November 4, 2024 from Havana

Regardless of the electoral outcome, Cuba will remain a thorn in the side of those who really rule in the United States.

The curtains are about to fall on the big show. The tight contest to occupy the throne of the Oval Room in the White House, between Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and former Republican President Donald Trump will come to an end.

According to most analysts, the elections will be decided in a group of states, namely seven, considered electorally key.

Let’s recall that the electoral system in that country is based on a body of 538 commissioners, who make up the Electoral College. The winning candidate in each state (with two exceptions), takes all of his or her pledges. The battle is focused on reaching the magic number that leads to the White House: 270.

Another interesting element of the vote in this country is that in most states, the results are decided even before the elections.

But if the sum of the states decided by both sides does not reach 270, that is when the key states come into play.

Democrats tend to win in advance in California, New York, New Jersey, Illinois, Hawaii, Oregon, Washington, Minnesota, Colorado, New Mexico, Massachusetts, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, Rhode Island, Connecticut, the District of Columbia, New Hampshire, Vermont and Maine.

For their part, the Republicans have on their side Texas, Ohio, Florida, Tennessee, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Missouri, Kansas, Louisiana, Alabama, the Dakotas, Wyoming, Idaho, Iowa, Arkansas, Alaska, Oklahoma, Mississippi, Utah, West Virginia, Montana, Nebraska and the second district of Maine.

If they settle this time around, the Democrats would start with 225 pledges and the Republicans with 219.

The fight will then center on the states of Wisconsin, with ten electoral votes, Michigan 15 and Pennsylvania with 19, known as the “blue wall”, while Georgia, with its 16 delegates, and Arizona with 11, may be a guarantee for the Republicans.

As things stand, the Democrats must “snatch” North Carolina from the Republicans, traditionally red-clad, but where both Barack Obama in 2008 and Jimmy Carter in 1976 won. However, in 2016 and 2020 the victory was Trump’s.

Still, in Nevada, Democratic in six of the last eight elections, a Trump triumph is predicted.

Nebraska, firmly Republican, is one of only two states; the other is Maine, which does not give all its pledges to the most voted candidate, but divides them by districts.

On the other hand, rumors that the Republican candidate will try to proclaim himself the winner, before the vote count is completed, are beginning to gain momentum.

Donald Trump, in recent declarations to the press, expressed that he could announce his victory next Tuesday, even though local officials warned that the counting could take several days, especially if the margin is narrow in the key states, as it is expected to be.

Because, in that electoral system, each state autonomously manages its own vote count, in the absence of a centralized national system. As if that were not enough, the major media, with their data analysis teams, are often the first to project the winner.

RACISM AND EXTREMISM ON THE RISE

The presence of expressions of racism and extremism has not been an exception in this electoral campaign, demonstrations that, regrettably, are part of the culture of violence and exclusion that mark the path of the USA.

That narrative has been present throughout history, and has accompanied the political rise of Donald Trump, who began his 2016 presidential campaign by calling Mexican migrants “rapists” and “animals.”

The use of threatening, xenophobic and discriminatory language has become a mainstay of the Trumpist campaign, when dealing with the issue of migration, the use of terms such as “invasion” is recurrent.

An example of the use of this narrative occurred in the presidential debate against Harris, in which Trump claimed that Haitian immigrants eat pets; a falsehood he repeated at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania.

In Seattle, where almost two out of every five Americans are of Asian origin, during the last year some have had to stop using their native language in public to avoid attacks, according to a report published by the Asian American Foundation.

About half of Americans have said they would support mass deportations of undocumented immigrants, according to a cnn poll conducted in January.

CUBA REGARDLESS OF ELECTION RESULTS

Whatever happens after this election will not change anything regarding Cuba, for one simple reason: the candidates’ positions reflect the bipartisan consensus on the need to overthrow the Cuban Revolution.

The real power is only interested in one thing: maintaining U.S. hegemony in the world, and for that it will have to feed the wars that are necessary to fatten the coffers of the financial, military, industrial and communications complex.

On that issue, the Rebel Island continues to be a thorn in the side of those who really rule in that nation and in the world. Strategically positioned, morally solid, sovereign and challenging, Cuba continues to be an example of what a country with courage and intrepidity can achieve.

Source: Granma, translation Resumen Latinoamericano – English