By Alejandra Garcia on February 11, 2025
Luisa Gonzalez
On February 9, Ecuadorians went to the polls to vote in the highly anticipated presidential election, as well as to elect all 151 members of the National Assembly. The results of the first round of voting have set the stage for a run-off in April, as no candidate achieved the required 50% threshold to win outright.
The election was marked by a tight race between current president Daniel Noboa, a 37-year-old businessman, and Luisa González, the candidate for the left-wing Revolución Ciudadana (RC) party. After more than three-quarters of the ballots were counted, Noboa led with 44.6% of the vote, while Gonzalez trailed closely behind with 44.02%. “Ecuador has spoken out in favor of a change, this is a triumph for the Ecuadorian people,” the leftist candidate claimed before her supporters after the preliminary results pointed out for a runoff.
Billionare Noboa, who has held the presidency for just 15 months following the resignation of former president Guillermo Lasso and the subsequent dissolution of the National Assembly, had hoped to solidify his mandate for a full term. However, his failure measures the people’s discontent over his administration amidst growing concerns over the country’s economic, energy, and security situation. After this unfavorable outcome, he refused to offer a speech to his followers and the nation at the end of the Election Day on Sunday.
Without providing any proofs, he’s using the narrative of widespread fraud to justify the tight margin between him and Gonzalez. He’s denouncing irregularities in the scrutiny of the votes and pointed out that, according to his count, there have been data registered in several provinces of the country that contradict the preliminary results by the Organization of American States… A typical justification long-time used by ultra-right-wing political leaders when their leadership tumbles.
This outcome was expected, people are tired of living under constant fear. Since the return of neoliberalism in 2017, Ecuador has been marked by rising violence. Both of these former leaders, like Noboa himself, embraced neoliberal economic policies, but under their watch, Ecuador became a key hub for narco-trafficking. The surge in violence has contributed to one of the highest homicide rates in the world. In a September 2024 survey, 57% of Ecuadorians expressed the belief that the country is heading in the wrong direction, while only 25% held a more optimistic view about the future.
This backdrop of widespread violence and instability, the militarization of the country that exposes the civilian population to human rights violations, the killing of innocent civilians, and the energy crisis, has shaped the electoral race, with both candidates positioning themselves as potential solutions to the nation’s crisis. Noboa has focused his campaign on stability and security, despite his inability to curb the ongoing violence during his time in office. On the other hand, Gonzalez is seeking to offer an alternative vision for Ecuador, but she faces the challenge of uniting a fragmented electorate as she heads to the run-off election.
For Gonzalez, this election presents a historic opportunity. If she wins the presidency in April, she would become Ecuador’s first female president, a significant milestone in the country’s political history. However, she must overcome the uphill battle of turning her party’s organizational strength into a winning strategy at the national level.
The outcome of the run-off election will depend on whether Noboa can retain enough support to secure a full presidential term or whether Gonzalez can rally enough voters behind her message of change. The stakes are high, as Ecuadorians continue to grapple with deep economic challenges, an escalating crime wave, and a political landscape that remains deeply polarized.
Source: Resumen Latinoamericano – English