By Frei Betto on October 22, 2025
Gambling has never been easier. Before, to lose money, people had to make an effort: find a “jogo do bicho” betting spot or take a chance at an underground casino. Today, all they have to do is open a colorful app, choose whether the Palmeiras soccer team will win a corner kick in the 12th minute, and voilà! There goes the 100 reais they had set aside to buy a cooking gas cylinder.
Bets are the Disney world of unsuspecting adults, with flashing notifications, magical bonuses that quickly disappear, and the illusion that life can be solved with a “lottery ticket.”
The problem is that, unlike Disney, there is no Cinderella castle here, only accumulated bills. It all starts in good faith. People download the app because their friend “won 400 reais betting five.” They immediately think, “Well, if he could do it, so can I.” And there goes the 10 reais on the first ticket. At first, they even get the “green” light.
One win, two… voilà! Their ego is already brimming with confidence. Forget the family budget, forget about saving, forget about health insurance. Their retirement money is in the hands of Flamengo’s new soccer striker. But soon the “red” arrives. And with it, the promise: “I’ll get it back next time.”
Will they win it back? Of course not. They accumulate losses and, by the middle of the month, they are already looking for a family member who will accept Pix (Brazil’s electronic payment system) installments to cover the “temporary” loan.
The main tip for making money betting is to own the bookmaker.
The logic is simple: “bet” is not a charity. If it gives a bonus of 50 reais, it’s because it knows it will earn 500. The algorithms are designed to give the feeling of “almost winning.” Almost. Always almost.
‘Bet’ keeps the player trapped in addiction. They believe they are “one ticket” away from changing their life, but in reality, they are just one click away from maxing out their credit card. No one gets rich betting at digital casinos. The people who create the app get rich. If you’ve noticed your money disappearing, ask for help. There is treatment for gambling addiction (ludopathy), and the sooner you stop, the fewer bills you’ll have to sacrifice on the altar of “green.” And find other, more affordable entertainment.
Watching the game without betting is free (or almost free, considering the price of streaming). Collecting money for a barbecue with friends is also exciting, and if someone burns the meat, at least you won’t lose 300 reais.
The recent vote in the Chamber of Deputies on October 8 caused a strong reaction in the Brazilian political and economic world regarding the sports betting sector.
The episode revealed not only the power of pressure from these companies, but also how the country still hesitates to seriously address the social and fiscal risks of digital betting.
Since 2023, with Law 14,790, Brazil has established a regulatory framework for fixed-odds betting, legalizing and organizing the sector under licensing and tax rules. However, many companies were already operating before that, without collecting taxes or maintaining adequate accounting controls.
To correct these irregularities, the government included in Provisional Measure 1,303/2025 a proposal to increase tax rates from 12 percent to 18 percent and retroactively tax transactions prior to regulation. The aim was to offset the revenue losses resulting from the repeal of the IOF (financial transaction tax) increase, estimated at up to R$17 billion (more than US$3.13 billion).
The measure also provided for the recovery of unpaid amounts to the tax authorities. In practice, the goal was to subject betting companies to stricter and more transparent tax regimes.
But what seemed like a necessary adjustment ended in defeat for the government and victory for the sector. Upon reaching the Chamber, the provisional measure was withdrawn from the agenda and expired.
Of the deputies, 251 voted against considering the bill, while 193 voted in favor of discussing it. As a result, all tax measures were scrapped and bookmakers retained the previous, less onerous and more flexible regime.
The result was celebrated by operators, who avoided a significant increase in the tax burden and retroactive taxation that could have reduced their profits. For the state, it meant a multimillion-dollar loss in revenue and another political impasse surrounding tax justice.
In the short term, betting houses are breathing a sigh of relief. They remain under the original tax regime and gain time to reorganize their businesses. However, the country loses fiscal momentum, as without the expected resources, the government may face difficulties in maintaining social programs and investments.
The episode also reinforces the perception that economic and political pressures have a disproportionate influence on legislative decisions. At the same time, regulatory uncertainty increases risk for investors and undermines Brazil’s credibility on the international stage.
There is also a social impact, as tax relief for betting companies contrasts with the burden placed on workers and consumers.
In a country with historical inequalities, the feeling is that gambling continues to be advantageous only for those who already have the chips. It is estimated that up to 17 billion reais will no longer be collected in 2026.
Brazil is experiencing a dangerous contradiction. On the one hand, there are the astronomical profits of foreign companies that exploit the national passion for soccer. On the other, there are indebted families, empty public coffers, and a legislature reluctant to charge those who earn the most a fair share.
The October 8 vote was not just a political act; it was a mirror.
It showed that a large part of the population still believes that luck or individual entrepreneurship are worth more than fiscal balance and government social policies. Gambling can be fun, but when the game begins to dictate politics and the economy, the loss is collective.
If more sophisticated sectors, such as gambling, escape higher taxation, the tax burden will fall more heavily on workers’ incomes and consumption. The regressive effect persists: those with more capital benefit, while those who depend on wages or consumption suffer more. This exacerbates inequalities and undermines the social legitimacy of fiscal policies. The wealthiest are grateful.
Source: Cubadebate translation Resumen Latinoamericano – English