By Marcelo Colussi on August 27, 2023
Bernardo Arévalo and the Semilla Movement, photo: CLAE
Over the years the popular camp in Guatemala has definitely lost a lot and has been on the defensive. In accordance with what happened all over the world, the triumph of neoliberal plans and the fierce anti-communism left by the first Cold War (we are already living the second one), the advances and conquests of the common people have regressed in a phenomenal way. In the country, although after the signing of the Peace Accords in 1996 some timid hopes for change had been opened, with the last presidential administrations (Otto Perez Molina, Jimmy Morales, Alejandro Giammattei) those minimal advances disappeared completely.
The actions of the International Commission against Impunity (CICIG) for a short period of time ( only when Washington determined it to be convenient) marked a moment of “breathing space” in society, because it was felt that action was being taken against the rampant corruption that had been installed. It should not be forgotten in this regard, as one of those imprisoned for that anti-corruption crusade that was unleashed in 2015 said, that Line 1 was stopped, but Line 2 was never touched – nor does it seem that it will ever be touched.
Since then, corruption became, in media terms, the country’s main problem. The “bad guys in the movie” were the venal leaders who, with their thefts and misdeeds, “impoverish the people”.; this was the half-truth we have been fed. Corruption exists, without a doubt, but it is the effect of a system that is based on the exploitation of the great working majorities which we call “capitalism”. Corrupt acts, which appear in all the governments of the world, in the prosperous North and in the impoverished South, are not the real cause of the hardships of the populations: it is the way in which wealth is distributed. Those corrupt officials, who move with criminal characteristics – what substantial difference is there between a cell phone thief, a gang member demanding extortion or a politician stealing a public budget – all are the product of a system that is unjust at its roots. These officials, who seem to be “public servants” at the very least, are an abnormality within a system that is perverse and corrupt in itself.
In any case, for some time now, the so-called Pact of the Corrupt (unpresentable political class, organized crime, certain voracious businessmen) has been taking over all the structures of the State, ensuring a climate of complete impunity for their shady deals, managed like mafias in the worst Al Capone style. For the present election they were counting on repeating their triumph in the presidency, consolidating and deepening an immoral drain on public resources. But the population reacted. The popular vote said no to this gangster advance, giving as winner a renovating proposal: the Semilla Party (Seed Movement).
Definitely, the triumph of Bernardo Arévalo is a breath of fresh air in an atmosphere as unbreathable as the one we have had to endure in the country lately, with mafia groups managing the governments (national and municipal) with criminal gang criteria, with such a stinking odor that led the population to say “enough”.
In the midst of the generalized uneasiness, with abuses of power by the government bordering on the authoritarianism of a dictatorship disguised as democracy, the appearance of Semilla is good news. Now, what can we really expect from this new government as of January 2024 when they take over? Let’s be realistic without losing dimension in the analysis. The prevailing climate was so dismal and embarrassing that a reform proposal wants to be seen by most as a “new spring” (thus mimicking the “democratic spring” of 1944). Hopefully it will be, but everything indicates that we should not have our expectations too high.
This is not a call to defeatism, but to realism. The proposals of the Seed Movement, which emerged from the anti-corruption mobilizations of 2015, do not really represent projects of social transformation. They basically focus on a scheme to make the public service more transparent, trying to eliminate corruption. But it is known that these structures, entrenched in the State for decades, will do their utmost to resist. In fact, in the Congress it does not have a majority, and the government will be in a permanent struggle against the darkest powers.
At this moment, just after the elections, a climate of euphoria can be experienced, feeling the triumph of the Seed Movement as an authentic popular advance. In one sense, very limitedly, it is: the voting population did not let itself be fooled and said “no” to the Pact of Corrupts. But be careful; let’s keep in mind what it means to have won the Executive Power. From the presidential palace, changes may be promoted, knowing that the real factors of power do not want substantial changes. The new government, if it is able to take office without setbacks on January 14, will have a hard time. Above all, we must be prepared for all kinds of foul play in these months, foreseeing that the mafias entrenched in the State may do anything to avoid losing space. The fight, therefore, will be arduous for even the tiniest gain.
On the other hand -and perhaps this is fundamental- the Seed Movement does not bring a revolutionary project. The accusations of the most right wing cave dwellers are there, preparing the way to neutralize it. As it has been carried in social networks: “Arevalo and his followers support abortion, social mariquitation wrongly called inclusion, the loss of values, the disintegration of the family, the legalization of drugs, the increase of public spending, the increase of populism and nepotism and the elimination of the army. They seek to turn Guatemala into a Venezuela”.
To distance himself from all this, Semilla clarified, almost vehemently, that “he is not a communist”, that there will be no expropriations or anything like that. The U.S. Embassy and some of the most powerful economic groups in the country have given him their approval, which indicates where he will be able to turn to in the near future. Socialist revolution in sight?, no. That is clear. Therefore, the expectations of economic improvement for the great masses will surely not be fulfilled; this sets up the right wing to show later that “the left in power is inoperative”.
Let us support the climate of change, but let’s not expect wonders where there cannot be any. To put an end to corruption -if that were possible- is praiseworthy; but that does not sweep away the basic injustices that are deeply embedded in Guatemala. Do not forget this.
Marcelo Colussi is an Argentine writer and political scientist, currently based in Guatemala.
Source: Rebelión, translation Resumen Latinoamericano – English