By Alexandra Garcia and Bill Hackwell on July 17, 2025
Xiomoro Castro meeting with Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel.
The second half of 2025 will be a critical period for democracy in Latin America, with presidential and legislative elections taking place in Bolivia, Honduras, and Chile, as well as midterm legislative elections in Argentina. This electoral cycle is expected to be marked by growing fragmentation, deepening political polarization, and the rise of Trump-style and Bukele-style rhetoric. Within this context, Honduras is emerging as one of the most closely watched countries in the region.
On November 30, Honduras will head to the polls following a turbulent political cycle: twelve years of drug running governance by the conservative National Party (2010–2022), followed by four years under the Libertad y Refundación (Libre) party, led by Xiomara Castro. Former President Juan Orlando Hernández, a nefarious figure of the Nationalist era, was arrested and extradited to the United States where he was convicted of drug trafficking and weapons offenses—further discrediting the traditional political elite.
After primary elections, three candidates have emerged as the main contenders: Rixi Moncada, candidate of the ruling Libre party and former Minister of Defense; Salvador Nasralla, of the Liberal Party, a media personality and prominent opposition figure known for his anti-establishment discourse; Nasry Asfura, of the National Party, former mayor of the capital, Tegucigalpa, seeking to return his party to power.
According to a TResearch poll, Moncada currently leads voter intention with 44.9%, followed by Nasralla with 27.5%, and Asfura with 23.4%. Given that Honduras uses a single-round electoral system, this scenario raises the possibility of a contested result. Nasralla has already hinted that he may not accept a defeat, suggesting the potential for fraud—echoing tactics seen in other countries where electoral outcomes have been challenged without evidence.
Libre Denounces Fraud Attempt and Calls for Mobilization
In recent weeks, political tensions have intensified. The ruling Libre party has denounced what it describes as an attempted electoral fraud orchestrated by the National Electoral Council (CNE) and supported by representatives of the traditional political establishment (National and Liberal parties). At the heart of the controversy is the Transmission of Preliminary Electoral Results (TREP) system, which Libre accuses of being vulnerable to manipulation—similar to the system used in the contested 2013 and 2017 elections, both marred by violence and repression.
Candidate Moncada has issued an urgent call for mass mobilization, urging young people, social movements, and unions to take to the streets in defense of democracy. “The desperation and arrogance of the coup-backed bipartisanship seeks to impose a fraudulent system,” Moncada warned in a statement on X.
Former President Manuel Zelaya, Libre’s general coordinator, echoed the alarm, calling for an emergency virtual meeting of the party’s leadership to plan protest actions. “There will be no coups or frauds. We will win,” Zelaya declared on social media, invoking the spirit of past popular struggles for democracy.
A Volatile Electoral Climate
The stakes are high. More than 6.3 million Hondurans are eligible to vote not only for the presidency, but also for 298 mayors, 128 members of Congress, and 20 representatives to the Central American Parliament.
In this highly charged political environment, Honduras is becoming a testing ground for democratic resilience in the region. The upcoming election will not only determine who governs the country over the next four years—it may also set the tone for its institutional future: whether Honduras moves further toward polarization and authoritarian drift, or whether it preserves the democratic path in the face of growing threats of fraud, unrest, and political violence.
This Honduran election extends beyond its national politics, as it is crucial to the geopolitical balance of all of Latin America. Honduras’s continued support of progressive countries, under pressure from the US, is crucial. During Castro’s presidency, she was the acting president of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) and used her position to condemn the US blockade against Cuba, and countered US imperial accusations by highlighting Cuba’s global contributions of teachers, scientists, and doctors. Zamora also voiced support for Venezuela, Nicaragua, Argentina’s former President Cristina Fernández, and Argentina’s claim to the Malvinas Islands, while extending solidarity to Palestinians suffering under the ongoing Israeli genocide and urging collective action to “stop the war of aggression.”
Source: Resumen Latinoamericano – English