By José Ernesto Nováez Guerrero April 15, 2026
fotos: Bill Hackwell
If Trumpist strategists believe that a victory in Cuba would be the answer to the failure in Iran, perhaps they should think twice. Being a country that defends peace and dialogue does not imply, under any circumstances, that we are defenseless.
The independent U.S. media outlet Zeteo sounded the alarm on April 14 by publishing a new leak provided by three anonymous sources, who claim that the White House sent a new directive to the Pentagon and other government agencies instructing them to intensify preparations for possible military operations against Cuba. Although this is not the first time news of this kind has been leaked to the media in the United States since January 3, given the gravity of the situation, we cannot afford to ignore it.
The statement made in Executive Order 14380 of January 29, which designates Cuba as a threat to U.S. national security, proves that the current administration has taken steps to fabricate a justification for aggression against the island. Viewed in perspective, it becomes clear that both at the federal level and in Florida state politics, great efforts have been made to fabricate various excuses.
In addition to the aforementioned Executive Order, we could add the accusations made in Florida courts against Cuban leaders of being part of the fictitious drug trafficking scheme of the Cartel de los Soles; the accusations of alleged Chinese or Russian bases, taken up again by various media outlets and politicians as the Anatoly Kolodkin approached the island; the recent accusations, repeated even by Health Secretary Robert Kennedy Jr., regarding the Cuban government’s alleged involvement in a Medicare fraud scheme and the boat loaded with armed men that left U.S. territory without being intercepted by any of the competent authorities in this country.
Additionally, the Cuban president has given several interviews in recent times to various U.S. media outlets. Notable among these were those he granted to Newsweek and NBC’s “Meet the Press.” Both were widely shared by other media outlets. In both instances, the president responded to questions about a possible attack on the island by stating that Cuba did not want war, that it was open to dialogue, but that if no other option remained, the country would defend itself.
This position was picked up by several major corporate media outlets and presented as a direct challenge from Cuba to the United States. This type of distorted interpretation directly targets the president’s sensitive ego, something the corporate media are well aware of and tend to exploit with relative frequency. Joining this campaign surrounding the Cuban president’s statements were, of course, the media outlets funded by the counterrevolution.
And it is not that Cuba’s existence and resistance are not a challenge to the intentions of U.S. imperialism; they are, and this is one of the reasons why the collective punishment against the Cuban people has lasted for nearly seven decades. But it is one thing to firmly defend the homeland and the values and principles that underpin the Cuban project, and quite another to engage in irresponsible provocation at a time of maximum risk. The Cuban president’s response makes the island’s positions clear and is in line with the Revolution’s historical stance.
The U.S. administration and its top political figure are going through an extremely delicate moment. The war in Iran and its effects have eroded their approval ratings. A poll conducted by CBS between April 8 and 10 found that 68 percent of respondents said they were “concerned” about the war in Iran and 54 percent “upset,” compared to only 29 percent who said they were “proud.” Added to this is the steady rise in fuel prices. The administration’s recent actions have led to a roughly 8 percent increase in the price of U.S.-produced crude oil on April 14, pushing it above $104 per barrel. International Brent, another benchmark crude in the markets, rose 7 percent on the same date, reaching $103 per barrel. Wholesale gasoline prices shot up 6 percent.
Trump, speaking to Fox News on April 13, acknowledged that fuel prices are unlikely to drop significantly before the fall, which would place him in an extremely complex situation ahead of the midterm elections in November. However, on April 15, he contradicted himself and claimed that the Strait of Hormuz would soon be fully opened and fuel prices would drop.
These statements, in addition to attempting to influence the market, serve as an indication of the current administration’s lack of a clear path forward regarding the conflict in Iran. His failure to defeat the Iranian nation—let alone do so quickly, as Netanyahu and some of his advisors led him to believe—has left him in an extremely unstable situation from a political standpoint. Despite his constant declarations of victory, the reality on the ground is different:
The Iranian quagmire has destroyed the brief aura of power the administration enjoyed following the events of January 3, 2026. This erodes the president’s standing among the most hawkish sectors of his electorate. And it cannot be ruled out that, in this scenario, Trump and his team are looking for a potential “easy target” that would allow them to rebuild that aura without the risk of opening another front that might also become bogged down.
Cuba is on that list of potential targets for many reasons. To the historic “sin” of having sought to build a socialist and sovereign project right at the empire’s doorstep, it adds its history of solidarity, commitment to social justice, and denunciation of imperialism’s excesses. Cuba is the obsession of the defeated caste that took refuge in Florida and has profited for decades from the policy against the island, achieving disproportionate influence and representation in the country relative to the community it claims to represent. Military aggression against the island is, so to speak, one of the “founding aspirations” of this caste and forms part of its identity as a political group.
The island is close to the United States and has a U.S. military base illegally situated on its territory. Its main arsenal is of Soviet origin, which it has not always been able to modernize given its economic circumstances from 1991 to the present. Since the COVID-19 pandemic and under the effects of an intensified blockade, its economy has contracted and its levels of activity have substantially declined. To White House strategists, it appears to be the perfect target for staging another spectacular operation involving the assassination or kidnapping of its leaders, followed by a withdrawal and a resounding media victory.
The eagerness of a ruling class and the administration’s need for reaffirmation may be the factors driving the consideration of this scenario. With the same disdain shown for human life in Gaza, Lebanon, Iran, and many other places, the strategists of the largest apparatus of organized destruction in human history are devoting themselves to planning scenarios that would invariably result in the loss of countless innocent lives.
Of course, it is almost unnecessary to reiterate that Cuba does not pose a threat to U.S. national security. On the contrary, the island, as multiple U.S. agencies have acknowledged, is a reliable ally in matters of security and the fight against drug trafficking in the region. The country’s zero-tolerance policy on drugs makes it the strongest bastion in the Caribbean in the fight against this scourge. Likewise, Cuba has demonstrated a firm commitment to combating transnational crime.
Although it may not possess the most modern weaponry, the island is by no means unarmed. Its doctrine of “war by the entire people” makes the process of resistance and confrontation against a potential invader a task for the entire nation, turning virtually every inch of the national territory into a bastion against aggression. Cuban troops are prepared for guerrilla warfare, taking advantage of the national terrain, particularly the formidable mountain ranges of the country’s three main geographic regions. And the Cuban people, for the most part, are deeply protective of national sovereignty and have demonstrated, on numerous occasions since 1868, their willingness to endure any sacrifice to achieve and preserve independence.
If Trump’s strategists believe that a victory in Cuba would be the answer to failure in Iran, perhaps they should think twice. The island has the will and the experience to turn any attack into a living hell for the aggressor. Being a country that defends peace and dialogue does not, under any circumstances, mean that we are defenseless.
José Ernesto Nováez Guerrero is a Cuban writer and journalist and a member of the Hemanos Saiz Association (AHS)
Source: Resumen Latinoamericano – Buenos Aires