The United States attempts to take over Cuba and bring Raul Castro to Trial

By Carlos Ciaño Zanetti, May 23, 2026 from Havana

When, in previous years, there was talk of possible military action by the United States against Cuba, some pointed to the lack of public readiness—a requirement that, except in extreme situations, is always taken into account to try to justify aggression and secure some level of support for it. At this time, there is sufficient evidence that the U.S. government is in an advanced stage of preparing international and domestic public opinion for a military adventure against Cuba.

Recently, Cuba’s Foreign Minister, Bruno Rodríguez Parrilla, denounced that the U.S. government is building, day after day and without any legitimate excuse, a “fraudulent case” to justify both the “ruthless economic war” and a “potential military aggression” against the island. President Díaz-Canel, for his part, reiterated that Cuba is not a threat to the United States and does not want war, but is preparing to confront any external aggression, and that a U.S. attack on Cuba would provoke a “bloodbath with incalculable consequences.”

The events that led to the foreign minister’s statement began in January of this year. As background, on the 3rd of that month, President Maduro was overthrown in Venezuela and a U.S.-aligned government was imposed there. Once the matter of Venezuela was resolved, and in accordance with the objectives set forth in the Monroe Doctrine, it was Cuba’s turn.

Although just a few days after Trump took office as president in January 2025, without any reason or justification, he once again included Cuba on the list of state sponsors of terrorism, the “fraudulent case” referred to by the Cuban foreign minister actually began on January 29 of this year, when President Trump declared a national emergency regarding Cuba, deeming the Cuban government an “unusual and extraordinary threat” to U.S. national security and foreign policy. That same day, Trump signed an executive order threatening to impose heavy tariffs on countries that sent oil to Cuba. In practice, a total fuel embargo was imposed on the island.

As part of the “ruthless economic war,” the Trump administration has waged an intense campaign against the presence of Cuban medical brigades in other countries, and through pressure has succeeded in getting some of them to end this type of collaboration.

On May 1, Trump signed Executive Order 14404, which threatens to freeze the assets in U.S. territory of all persons or entities doing business with Cuba. The measure also threatens any U.S. person or entity—or any person or entity from any other country—that provides financial, material, or technological support to the Cuban government or operates in key sectors on the island, such as energy, defense, finance, mining, and security.

On May 7, the Trump administration, pursuant to the aforementioned Executive Order 14404, imposed sanctions on a group of Cuban government entities and officials allegedly responsible for repression and for posing threats to U.S. national security and foreign policy. That same day, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that new sanctions would soon be announced.

In this way, the U.S. government is compiling the “fraudulent dossier” for its “ruthless economic war.” So far, this has been the main thrust of its actions. They prefer this approach to see if they can force the Cuban government to wave the white flag or provoke the people into rising up against the government. But in case this doesn’t work for them, they are also working hard to complete the dossier justifying military aggression.

“Close ties with countries hostile to the United States such as Russia, China, and Iran; Russian and Chinese espionage bases in Cuba; lack of cooperation with the United States in the fight against terrorism; state sponsor of terrorism; links to drug trafficking; Cuba is a failed state of corrupt rulers who, moreover, violently repress, murder, torture, and imprison minors and innocent people,” among others; up to the most recent: “Cuba has purchased 300 drones from Iran to attack the Guantanamo Naval Base, U.S. ships, and possibly South Florida.”

While they continue to prepare their “case files,” other closely related events are unfolding: talks between representatives of both countries in San Cristóbal and Havana, a visit to Havana by the CIA director, a suspicious offer of $100 million in humanitarian aid; an aircraft carrier arrives in the Caribbean; threats by Trump to take Cuba one way or another; frequent and contradictory statements by Trump and Marco Rubio, etc. But I want to focus on something that is particularly significant: the announcement on May 20 by the Department of Justice that it had filed charges to bring Army General Raúl Castro to trial, accused of shooting down two Brothers to the Rescue (B2R) planes and the deaths of their four crew members on February 24, 1996.

Brothers to the Rescue was founded in 1991, declaring itself a “humanitarian” organization whose goal was to aid and rescue rafters attempting to emigrate from Cuba and to “support the Cuban people’s efforts to free themselves from the dictatorship through the use of nonviolence.” José Basulto, a former CIA agent and self-confessed terrorist, was the organization’s leader. The Cuban-American National Foundation, former Cuban-American congressmen Ileana Ross and Lincoln Díaz Balart, and other sectors of the Cuban mafia in Miami inspired and helped finance BR, providing it with systematic support.

From its inception until 1993, BR was dedicated to monitoring the waters of the Florida Straits to inform the U.S. Coast Guard of the presence of rafters, so that they could be rescued. Starting in 1994, the situation changed as a result of an agreement signed by the governments of Cuba and the U.S. known as “wet foot, dry foot,” which meant that rafters, instead of being taken to the United States, would be returned to Cuba. This marked the beginning of a new phase in which BR began to redefine its mission and transform it into a political agenda of harassment and threats against the Cuban government, frequently entering Cuban territorial waters and even flying over the country’s capital, and occasionally dropping leaflets with counterrevolutionary propaganda.

In July 1995, following another provocative flight over Havana’s Malecón and the dropping of leaflets, upon returning to Miami, Basulto declared: “We are proud of what we did. We want confrontation.” And after another of his incursions in January 1996, he told Radio Martí: “Castro is not invincible; there are many things within our reach that we can do.” Cuba was aware, thanks to intelligence information, of terrorist activities being planned, such as the smuggling of weapons into Cuban territory and the destruction of power towers.

Between 1994 and 1996, numerous incursions of this type occurred. Declassified documents show that, over a period of nearly 20 months during those three years, the Cuban government repeatedly asked the Clinton Administration to stop these types of aerial incursions and issued clear warnings that strong measures would be taken if the provocations continued. In total, Cuba sent 16 diplomatic notes to the U.S. government reporting the serious violations of our airspace and territory and requesting that measures be taken to put an end to them. In the last of these 16 notes, the tone was practically one of supplication.

But it wasn’t just the diplomatic notes. Cuba occasionally turned to personal contacts and relationships. Ricardo Alarcón reached out and alerted an acquaintance of his, then-Under Secretary of State Peter Tarnoff, who relayed the message to the Interagency Working Group on Cuba and the Secretary of Transportation, but nothing was done. Another similar message that Alarcón sent via Saul Landau was also delivered to an official in the Clinton administration, who contacted the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). Believing the problem had been resolved, he reported as much in a message he sent to Havana.

During a visit by a U.S. military delegation to Cuba in February 1996, General Arnaldo Tamayo, Cuba’s first cosmonaut, spoke with retired Rear Admiral Eugene Carroll about the repeated BR violations and Cuba’s decision to no longer tolerate them.

In January 1996, President Fidel Castro met in Cuba with Bill Richardson, a former congressman and personal friend of President Clinton, through whom he sent a message to the U.S. president regarding the need to end BR flights. When Richardson returned to Cuba a month later, he told Fidel that he had spoken personally with Clinton and that Clinton had given the order to suspend the flights.

The declassified documents make it clear that at least some senior U.S. government officials knew that a shoot down was not only possible but likely, and did nothing to prevent it. Richard Nuccio, the president’s senior advisor on Cuba, said that the Clinton administration tried to warn Brothers to the Rescue informally on numerous occasions months before the shoot down, but they ignored the warnings and complained to Cuban-American members of Congress that they were being persecuted by the Clinton administration, to no avail because politics got in the way.

Special mention must be made of the evident complicity of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), which received numerous warnings from Cuba and from officials in the Clinton administration, yet refused to take measures to prevent the illegal flights from continuing, limiting itself to warning Basulto not to cross into international waters and maintaining his pilot’s license until February 24 itself.

Although Cuban radar data shows that on that February 24, when the light aircraft were shot down, they were in Cuban territorial waters, the United States, in an obvious attempt to evade responsibility for its repeated negligence, has insisted that the incident occurred in international waters. However, it has always refused to release the satellite images showing the positions of the pirate planes and the Cuban MiGs.

The BR flights constituted a challenge to Cuba’s national security, a flagrant violation of its sovereignty, and a humiliation. The Cuban government made it clear on several occasions to the Clinton administration that these flights would not be tolerated, and nothing was done. No country in the world would have tolerated such an affront to its sovereignty for so long, and Cuba was fully within its rights to prevent this from continuing.

The first thing that must be made clear regarding these events related to the shooting down of the planes is that this was a provoked incident, an event long sought at all costs by the Miami political mafia with the aim of provoking a forceful response from the Clinton administration that would lead to the overthrow of the Cuban revolution; that this was made possible by the complicity of some parties involved in the process and the negligence of others, and where, without the slightest shame, they sacrificed the four young men who lost their lives that day as disposable pawns.

These events truly deserve a trial in which those guilty of this atrocious crime are punished. In the dock, as masterminds, would sit some members of the Miami political mafia, including the Cuban-American National Foundation and congressmen of Cuban origin. As the perpetrator of the crime, José Basulto, who was fully aware and informed of what was about to happen and sent the two small planes that were shot down ahead, cowardly staying behind. And for criminal negligence, the Clinton administration and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). Then there would indeed be a fair trial, and the true culprits could be punished.

Another issue that must also be clarified is why Raúl Castro should be tried now, 30 years after those events. Although there may be an interest in pleasing Marco Rubio and a sector of Cubans in Miami who support Trump in his attempts to bring down Cuba, the main motive is likely to add him to the intimidation campaign the Trump administration is waging with its threats to “take over Cuba” if the Cuban government does not accede to its demands. The media campaign surrounding everything related to Castro’s trial constantly alludes to the events in Venezuela and the kidnapping of President Maduro after he was subjected to a similar trial, and they are speculating on the possibility that Cuba might do the same.

The United States will try to intensify the economic war to the maximum, on the one hand, and the intimidation campaign, on the other, in order to force the Cuban government to show signs of flexibility or to provoke the people into rebelling against the government. The situation currently facing the U.S. administration—with the war in Iran and major internal unrest five months before the midterm elections—complicates the option of “taking Cuba by force.”

Trump may be an ignorant, thoughtless, and impulsive man, but the intelligence agencies and the Pentagon are full of well-informed professionals. They know that Cuba is not Venezuela and that the risks in Cuba are infinitely greater than in Venezuela. In Venezuela, it was relatively easy for them because there was internal complicity. They won’t find that in Cuba. They also know Cubans and our leaders well, and are aware that it would be impossible for them to take any of them alive.

The satisfaction that anti-Chavistas might have felt seeing Maduro bound hand and foot is something Cuban counterrevolutionaries will never experience.

Carlos Ciaño Zanetti, is an associate at the Center for International Policy Research (CIPI) in Havana

translation: Resumen Latinoamericano – English