Cuba, Between Psychological Warfare, Military Threats and Economic Strangulation

By Alejandra Garcia Elizalde on September 28, 2026

Havana is facing an escalation of pressure in which threats of potential military action coexist, almost simultaneously, with messages from Washington about the possibility of reaching an agreement. Meanwhile, restrictions on fuel supplies and international trade are deepening the difficulties of ensuring essential services.

Will there be military action against Cuba? Will there be negotiations? Is Washington seeking an agreement or preparing for confrontation? Within a matter of hours, signals coming from the United States appear to be pointing in opposite directions.

On Friday, a CBS News report revealed that the U.S. military is assessing the availability of military police, engineering, logistics and medical units that could come under the leadership of U.S. Southern Command in the coming months. The internal document considers that some of these capabilities could be needed within a 90- to 120-day period. Citing U.S. officials, CBS reported that the process is part of military planning related to Cuba. The document, however, does not directly mention the island and does not constitute a deployment order.

The report came after U.S. intelligence agencies had analyzed months earlier how Cuba might respond to potential military action. CBS reported in May that Washington was studying options and the possible consequences of an intervention.

But just one day after the report emerged, President Donald Trump delivered a different message. He said that the United States and Cuba would probably reach an agreement and stated that he did not consider military action necessary. It is precisely this combination of threats and negotiations that places Cuba in a state of permanent uncertainty. An unprecedented psychological war.

The Threat as Everyday Pressure

For a country that has lived under sanctions, trade restrictions and political pressure from Washington for more than six decades, the possibility of military escalation does not exist in isolation.

This past week, Trump used his address to the United Nations General Assembly to declare Cuba a “failed state” and say that “freedom” would come to the island, while defending his administration’s policy of maximum pressure. The Cuban delegation then walked out of the chamber during his speech.

Days later, Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez Parrilla warned that Havana takes the military threats seriously because, he said, they are not limited to public statements but are accompanied by reports of concrete preparations. Rodríguez told the United Nations that Cuba would defend itself against any aggression and reiterated that the country poses no threat to the United States. The impact of this dynamic goes beyond whether or not a military operation actually takes place. Uncertainty itself becomes a form of pressure.

When a country must simultaneously contemplate the possibility of military confrontation, an intensification of sanctions and potential negotiations, the planning of its economy, energy system and public services becomes conditioned by constantly changing scenarios.

From Fuel to Hospitals

The economic dimension of this pressure takes a particular importance because fuel is not simply a commodity. In Cuba, it determines electricity generation, transportation, food distribution, water-pumping systems, agricultural activity and hospitals’ ability to maintain services during blackouts.

The Cuban government maintains that new U.S. restrictions on fuel shipments amount, in practice, to a naval blockade, due to the pressure exerted on countries, shipping companies and operators seeking to supply oil and other resources to the island.

The material consequences of the fuel shortage are visible. A Reuters report published in March documented the impact of fuel shortages and U.S. sanctions on Cuba’s healthcare system. According to figures from the Cuban Ministry of Public Health cited by the agency, around 96,000 people were then on waiting lists for surgery, including approximately 11,000 children, while hundreds of pediatric operations each week were facing shortages of medicines, oxygen, anesthesia and other supplies.

Cuban Foreign Minister Rodríguez has added another figure illustrating the scale of the problem: more than 7,000 containers carrying basic goods destined for Cuba are reportedly being affected by pressure on shipping companies. According to Rodríguez, a significant portion of these shipments contain food, medicines and medical devices that had already been contracted and paid for.

Thus, a decision made in Washington can have a concrete expression just 90 miles south of Florida: a medicine that does not reach a pharmacy, an ambulance unable to transport a patient, a generator without fuel, or a hospital facing a blackout.

A Contradiction Defining the Current Moment

The current paradox is difficult to ignore. On the one hand, the United States is increasing economic pressure and keeping the possibility of military action open. On the other, Trump says there is a possibility of reaching an agreement. And Cuba, while denouncing the threats, maintains that it is willing to engage in dialogue.

Rodríguez himself recently confirmed that contacts exist between Havana and Washington, although he said there has been no progress and that any eventual process would have to be based on respect, sovereign equality, international law and non-interference in Cuba’s internal affairs.

Therefore, the dilemma is not simply whether there will be war or negotiations. It is also about what it means to negotiate while maintaining a policy of maximum pressure from the White House. For Havana, it is not coherent to speak of dialogue while measures are being intensified that make access to fuel, financing, transportation and essential supplies even more difficult.

For Washington, in contrast, sanctions constitute a pressure tool intended to bring about political changes in Cuba and do not automatically amount to preparations for war. Trump has made the objective of these pressures explicit: “We want change in Cuba,” he said at the United Nations.

Uncertainty as the New Normal

Recent history shows that relations between Washington and Havana can change rapidly. One day there is a threat. The next, a statement about possible negotiations. Then, new sanctions. Followed by diplomatic contacts. And once again, reports of military planning.

This succession of contradictory signals creates a scenario in which uncertainty ceases to be exceptional and becomes part of everyday life. A war does not have to begin for a society to experience the effects of confrontation.

While Trump plays at war and uncertainty hangs over Cuba, resilience is being cooked over a slow fire: in a darkened apartment, a mother lights a wood fire to prepare food for her children, turning darkness and scarcity into yet another form of everyday resistance.

Source: Resumen Latinoamericano – English