July 20, 2020
July 20, 2015 opening of the Cuban Embassy in Washington DC. Photo: Bill Hackwell
Five years after their re-establishment, the relations between Cuba and the United States are now in free fall and frank deterioration, analysts consulted by Sputnik observed adding that change will occur only after the US presidential elections.
On July 20, 2015, the U.S. and Cuba re-opened their embassies momentarily ending confrontation thanks to the new policy towards Cuba of then-president Barack Obama.
However, the current president of the US, Donald Trump, cancelled the “mistaken policy” of his predecessor in June 2017. The White House declared that the U.S. was continuing the embargo of Cuba and was opposed to the calls of the UN and other international organizations for the blockade to be lifted.
Arturo Lopez-Levy, professor at Holy Names College in Oakland California says that, “The relations are in a free fall and frank deterioration. The hostility of the Trump administration towards the government of Cuba is very marked, and there is no interest on his part in avoiding an escalation.”
A policy doomed to failure
According to Salim Lamrani, Doctor of Iberian and Latin-American Studies at the Sorbonne points out that there are three principal aspects of Cuba that are under attack by the US; international medical cooperation, remittances sent from the Cuban community in the US and tourism.
The Trump Administration also has decided to apply Title III of the Helms-Burton Act, which permits foreign companies with assets in Cuba to be sued in U.S. courts, with the goal of depriving Havana of all foreign investment. In addition, the White House placed sanctions on petroleum companies and shipping lines that do business with Cuba.
“There will be no substantive changes in Cuban policy during the current Trump Administration. They will continue to apply obsolete and counter-productive measures that do harm to the people of Cuba and also, to a lesser extent, to the people of the United States,” Lamrani went on to say.
According to this analyst, “this policy is doomed to failure since, as the history of the relations between the two countries since 1959 has shown, the government of Cuba has never agreed to negotiate under threats or coercion.”
After the Elections
Lopez-Levy shares this opinion, believing that no change in relations before the U.S. elections should be expected
“If Biden wins, it is likely that important issues for both countries will be sorted out and that there will be some return to conditions at the end of the Obama period, or at least to a functional cooperative relationship”, he indicated.
It is also interesting to speculate on what will be the balance in Congress, what bills may be passed in the December legislative session.
“Relations with Cuba could gain relevance as a test case for the adoption of a new approach toward Latin America,” observes Lopez-Levy.
Professor Lamrani, in turn, emphasizes that dialogue between the two countries should be based on a set of indisputable principles, such as sovereign equality, reciprocity, and non-interference in internal affairs of the other.
“Havana has re-affirmed on repeated occasions that the political system and socio-economic model are not negotiable since they fall within the exclusive jurisdiction of the sovereign people of Cuba,” he concluded.
Source: Sputnik, translation Resumen Latinoamericano, North America bureau