By Emir Sader on December 7, 2021
photo: Xinhua
The most important question in Brazil today is: will Lula da Silva be the next president of Brazil? No one else swears by Bolsonaro’s reelection. But, even so, the path is not clear for Lula.
The right wing is divided: a part is even resigned to live again with Lula in the presidency of Brazil. It is probably still a minority sector at present, but it may grow over time. They do not agree with Lula’s government program, they are neoliberals and know that Lula’s government will go in another direction: resumption of productive investments, priority in the generation of formal jobs and social policies. But they consider that they can, as it happened in Lula’s previous government, coexist with the former president’s program.
They understand that the situation in Brazil and its economy is disastrous, and that only a president with experience and a lot of support can lead to a government with legitimacy, which can make the Brazilian State work again, so that the economy can grow again and Brazil can recover its prestige in the world. They know that this government will not primarily serve the interests of private banks and speculative capital. But they have to settle for a Lula government, as the price to pay for having placed in the presidency the person who led Brazil to the worst crisis in its history.
Opposition Right
The right wing knows that it will not be their government. It will try, with its means -especially the media- to condition as much as possible a new Lula government. It will resume the denunciations of corruption, it will oppose the government’s economic policy, it will use its strength in Congress to block government projects with which it does not agree. And it is preparing for the next elections, with its own candidacies, to try to prevent the Workers’ Party (PT) from remaining in government.
Other sectors are directly opposed to the possibility of a new Lula government. They are looking for candidates who can run in the elections. They are divided between Jair Bolsonaro and Sergio Moro. It is not about programmatic differences, but about the electoral possibilities of each one.
Lula and Nicaragua
This hard core will play with all its strength to prevent Lula’s return to government. The use of the Nicaraguan government issue already shows a type of action that tries to undermine Lula. The PT and Lula will be accused of not being democratic, because of the party’s position in countries such as Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela. Any inaccuracies in the PT’s position will be explored.
The PT’s position is that the peoples of these countries should decide their destiny, without any kind of external intervention. It condemns the US position of intervention and overthrow.
The PT supports the economic and social measures of the governments of countries that favor the rights of the entire population, that oppose neoliberalism and capitalism. But it does not take the political system of those countries as its own.
Lula himself recently criticized Daniel Ortega’s candidacy for opposing indefinite reelection. He himself, after being reelected and with 87 percent of Brazilian support, refused to attempt any kind of constitutional change to run for a third term and launched Dilma Rousseff’s candidacy.
Internal debate
The PT is a deeply democratic party, with broad internal debate, through the presence of different currents and the free participation of all its members. In addition to promoting debates with social movements and civil organizations and having media to publicize these debates.
This is the first trap that will be set for the PT and Lula, which they will have to face with rigor and seriousness. Throughout the campaign, new denunciations, fake news, unfounded accusations, among other initiatives, will appear. The media will be instruments of the right-wing campaign against Lula and the PT. The dispute of ideas will be central, not only the political dispute. It will be necessary to win politically, but also in the fight for ideas.
In 2002 Lula won politically, but neoliberal ideas continued to dominate society. This put limits to the PT governments. They managed to make those governments prioritize social policies and not fiscal adjustment, but they did not carry out deep reforms that would structurally alter the economy, the State and social relations. Tax reform, reform of the State, of the political system, democratization of the Judiciary, among others, which were pending.
Lula is clearly the favorite, he maintains a high level in the polls, with large distances in relation to the rest of the candidates. But the first round of elections is almost a year away. For a long time there will be many anti-democratic attempts to prevent Lula’s victory. It is necessary to be prepared to face them, with answers and with popular mobilizations. Lula’s victory will represent not only the reconquest of democracy, but also a resounding defeat of the right wing, its parties, its media and all those who have committed themselves to Bolsonaro’s government.
Source: Pagina 12, translation Resumen Latinoamericano – English