By Gustavo A Maranges on March 24, 2022
Last Sunday’s legislative elections in Colombia showed the strength of the leftist coalition Historic Pact. With nearly 2.7 million votes, the group led by Gustavo Petro emerged as the most voted political force in the country, which turned into a gain of 16 seats in the Senate and 25 in Congress.
Beyond the excellent result of the Historical Pact, the main change is the weakening of Uribe’s followers, who obtained 21 fewer seats. Congress is now in a balance ever since the main political forces of the country got a pretty similar number of seats.
Undoubtedly, this is an encouraging outcome rooted in the wide popular discontent with the dismal management of the current president Ivan Duque. The increase in inequality, the social and economic impact of COVID-19, the growing unemployment, and the protests during several months are among the causes of this result that have given Petro a broader electoral base.
However, this step forward should not be interpreted lightly. More support for leftist forces and a weakening of the electoral base of the Colombian right sectors do not mean a victory in the next presidential elections. Although everything points in that direction, there are many remaining obstacles to be overcome, especially if we talk about a country that without interruption has been dominated by the right-wing for, at least, the last century.
Given the great diversity in the Congress of the Republic, political alliances will play an essential to assure the country’s governability, regardless of who wins the Presidential Elections on May 29th. In this context, the election for the first time in the history of 16 special seats for the defense of the Peace Agreement may be decisive. It is the result of the peace negotiations held in Havana, Cuba in 2016.
These 16 seats may be strategic for Petro, who is a loyal supporter of the Peace Agreement. Petro’s political program is more attractive to this group than the other candidates. However, these 16 lawmakers come from 16 different constituencies, which implies some heterogeneity. Therefore, establishing an alliance as a bloc is not easy. It means that, despite their common raison d’être, territorial affinity may be a core element in defining the political loyalties of this mixed group.
Another challenge Petro will face on his way to the presidency is electoral fraud. Recently, Historical Pact’s presidential candidate denounced how almost half a million votes were taken from them in over 30,000 polling stations during a first unofficial quick count (preconteo). According to the NGO Electoral Observation Mission, the leftist coalition did not receive a single vote in 25.6% of the polling stations. This is an atypical result since this statistic drops to little more than 3% in the cases of the second and third most voted political forces.
The results of the official scrutiny of the National Electoral Council (CNE) backed Petro’s accusation. Subsequently, Uribe’s followers and the government demanded a recount of all votes due to the differences between the preconteo and the final scrutiny, where they lost over 50,000 votes. This is a second attempt to steal votes from the Historic Pact since the recount would be made without the presence of party representatives.
Petro has repeatedly denounced that Uribism has control of electoral bodies at different levels. That’s why massive participation of citizens is necessary to guarantee a landslide victory impossible to hide. The right-wing is not willing to lose power even when the people demand it. The “errors” in the preconteo and then the further request for a recount showed Petro could face a scenario very similar to the one faced by Pedro Castillo in Peru. For the moment, the unjustified discourse of electoral fraud has ignited in Colombia, something that speaks of the weakness of Uribism.
So far, Petro remains the main favorite for May 29 Elections, an idea that has been reinforced since the announcement of Francia Márquez as vice-president. Francia was the third most voted for candidate among all presidential pre-candidates, only surpassed by Petro and Fico Gutierrez.
Between Francia and Petro, they added up to over 5 million votes. Although according to historical records, they have to gather between 9 and 10 million votes to win the election, polls show that the left-wing tandem could get them. On the one hand, Petro’s popularity is evident. On the other hand, Francia could capitalize on some relevant support of the Afro-descendant community and the environmental and feminist movements, since she has a past of social struggles in defense of these sectors.
Colombia’s future looks encouraging, but history forces us to be cautious when forecasting political events in this stronghold of the continental right. The heavy US military presence and the Colombian oligarchic sectors will do everything possible to prevent Petro’s victory. However, the Colombian people are coming alive and have demonstrated that they are not willing to endure more neglect and robbery. So, when reason and force fight on the same sides, we can only hope to see how events unfold.
Source: Resumen Latinoamericano – English