By Gustavo A Maranges on February 7, 2023
former Ecuador Pres. Rafael Correa and supporters celebrate in Mexico the defeat of Lasso and CREO in regional elections.
Last Sunday, regional elections were held in Ecuador. Thirteen million people were called to elect 5,700 (governors, mayors, counselors, and parish board members) and the seven Council of Citizen Participation and Social Control (Citizen Council or CPCCS)’s counselors and their substitutes. In addition, the executive led by Guillermo Lasso submitted eight Constitutional Referendum questions, which were grouped into three topics: security, environment, and the country’s political work.
The process took place amid an economic crisis, the highest insecurity levels in the last 30 years, and a president’s approval rate that barely reaches 20%. All these elements played against this neoliberal administration’s odds, although the crushing defeat suggests a much deeper cause beyond the current situation.
The big winner on this occasion was the Union for a Hope (UNES) coalition, whose most visible member is the “Citizen Revolution” (RC) party led by the former president and political exile in Belgium, Rafael Correa. Meanwhile, the second force was the Pachakutik party, which won some governorships and mayorships, especially in the country’s Amazon and Andean regions. The defeat of Lasso’s Creating Opportunities (CREO) party was so resounding that it barely managed to win one mayorship, which was only possible thanks to an alliance with other political forces.
This triumph can only be viewed as a resounding comeback of the Ecuadorian left-wing forces’. They overcame betrayals like Lenin Moreno’s sharp veer to the right after he became president, exhausting internal disputes, and constant judicial and media harassment. The Ecuadorian left wing, led by Correa, not only lost the 2021 Presidential Election but also it just won two mayorships in the previous regional elections back in 2019.
Today, after processing over 97% of the ballots, this same political force (UNES) won 7 out of 23 governorships in Pichincha, Azuay, Santo Domingo, Santa Elena, Manabi, and Guayas. It doesn’t just represent the largest amount for a single party, but also the country’s 7 most populated and important provinces. On top of it, they won at least 6 provincial capital mayorships, among them Quito (Pichincha) and Guayaquil (Guayas), the two most important cities in the country.
In Guayaquil, a conservative stronghold for the last 31 years and considered the economic center of the country, candidate Aquiles Alvarez defeated favorite Cynthia Viteri. Meanwhile, in Quito, the sociologist Pavel Muñoz, who previously held various positions within Correa’s administrations won. Additionally, RC managed 8 of the 21 city councilors elected. These successes were achieved without alliances with other parties, which symbolizes RC’s strength in the main urban centers.
Another encouraging fact is that, for the first time in the history of Ecuador, an indigenous woman has been elected mayor. Her name is Diana Caiza, a 36-year-old woman appointed by Pachakutik to run for the Andean county of Ambato’s mayorship.
In the Council of Citizen Participation and Social Control (CPCCS), no political group reached a majority. Although candidates to this institution cannot belong to any political party, they can be supported by them during their campaigns. Three elected councilors were supported by UNES, two others by the conservative Social Christian Party (PSC), while the two others had no political links to any party.
Despite not getting a majority, it is a very positive result that will give the leftist forces considerable influence to appoint the new Comptroller General, the Attorney General, the Ombudsman, and the Judiciary Council, all of which are currently vacant. Likewise, the CPCCS is in charge of appointing some other 65 high-rank posts within the state.
Constitutional Referendum Results
It was the second, and maybe the most important, victory of the Ecuadorian left wing. After processing 90% of the votes, Lasso accepted the full-scope of the defeat. Polls showed only 5% of the electoral roll would vote “No” to all his so called reform measures, while over 60% would cast mixed votes. However the polls were wrong and the unanimous rejection exceeded 50%, and not even one single Lasso’s reform ended up passing.
The hardest fought dispute was around the first question, referring to the extradition of drug offenders, but the vote closed 52% vs. 48% favoring the “No”. The rest of the questions were all rejected by a 10% margin. The most rejected proposals were related to the CPCCS. The government sought to virtually kill this institution by transferring its most relevant attributions to the National Assembly, the institution with the lowest citizen approval and where the right wing has considerably more control.
Just a few days ago, we ran an issue entitled “Ecuador: A Constitutional Referendum Intended to Solidify Control by Elites,” where we exposed the possible impact of Lasso’s reforms. Approving them would have meant the working class and minorities’ capitulation to the neoliberal economic elite. But fortunately, most Ecuadorians were aware of this and, in some way, shared our criteria for this intended onslaught against their democratic norms.
Some media, such as the Spanish newspaper “El País,” described the results as “unexpected,” which may be the result of a shallow analysis or a very subtle way of saying this was a significant defeat for the neo liberal model. Many people tend to limit the victory’s causes to the current situation in Ecuador or a punishment vote against Lasso but we will see how it all plays out.
Ecuador is currently the third most insecure country in the region, and the number of violent deaths doubled in 2022 (4,500 murders, the highest in 30 years) compared to 2021 (2,045 murders). Organized crime has gained strength, and prison riots attest to this. On top of that, for the first time in the country’s history, two candidates were assassinated, one of them the night before the election. By the way, he won posthumously on behalf of the UNES. Another factor for the defeat for Lasso’s government is its failure to reduce inflation and his total capitulation to the IMF by increasing Ecuador’s debt further causing more social discontent.
Not taking into account the people’s political conscience is to underestimate their culture. Otherwise, how would we be able to explain how Rafael Correa, in exile, is currently the politician with the highest approval rating in the country, despite having against him the right-wing’s well-entrenched media and judicial machinery?
Lasso and his CREO party seem fatally wounded from a political sense, and this result will greatly complicate his management over the next two years. In other words, the elections have to be considered not only as an immediate victory against the banks and the oligarchs but as a fact that will positively influence the 2025 Presidential Elections in favor of the leftist forces. In summary it is safe to say that because of the determination of the people at the polls and the rejection of the president, Ecuador is no longer the regional right-wing stronghold it was just a few days ago.
Source: Resumen Latinoamericano – US