By Jim Cason and David Brooks on July 28, 2025
Havana, photo: Bill Hackwell
President Donald Trump’s announcement in late June of a series of measures against the Cuban government, followed in July by more visa sanctions against leaders in Havana and additional mechanisms to further restrict Americans from doing business with the island’s tourism sector, were presented as evidence of the new, more aggressive policy toward Cuba promised by the incoming administration.
But experts in the United States are debating whether these new measures will have a greater impact or are merely a continuation of policies developed and implemented during Trump’s first presidency, many of which were maintained during the administration of Democrat Joe Biden.
All the experts interviewed by La Jornada acknowledged that the blockade and the measures to suffocate the Cuban government in recent years have hit the island’s economy hard, causing a deterioration in living conditions for the Cuban people.
Exports Continue
However, it is less well known that, despite the blockade and the new measures, behind the political scene over the past 20 years, US agricultural and transportation exports have grown substantially. For example, agricultural sales in May 2025 reached a record level of $37 million.
One of the questions now with the current administration in Washington is what will happen to this trade.
Business consultant and expert on bilateral trade with Cuba, John Kavulich, director of the US-Cuba Trade and Economic Council, explained in an interview that the details of the new policy are less significant than the signal sent by the publication of the official document National Security Policy Memorandum-5 (NSPM-5), which details the recent measures.
If you look back at Trump’s first term, it wasn’t until 2019 that they took action against cruise ships (arriving in Havana) and then went after Marriott’s hotel management contract. They took their time. This time, they are moving forward all at once.
The mere fact of presenting the document had an effect. Compliance officers within banks examined it immediately, you have business executives looking at it, everyone is evaluating it, and so it becomes another reason to avoid anything that has to do with Cuba, explained Kavulich, who advises US companies that have business or commercial relations with the island. There is nothing dramatically new, but there are nuances that may indicate dramatic changes.
Maximum pressure
Fulton Armstrong, a former National Intelligence Officer for Latin America, agrees that the policy toward Cuba in the first months of this administration has been essentially the same as that of Trump’s first term and the Biden administration, which is to apply maximum pressure.
He commented in an interview with La Jornada that Trump has not done anything drastic so far, but he and his anti-Castro secretary and deputy secretary of state have shown no signs of abandoning their ambitions for regime change, a goal that has been promoted through various tactics by administrations of both parties. He warned that with Cuba suffering multiple crises, they could well be assessing that the fruit is ripe for the picking.
The now analyst and academic points out that these measures are being applied with greater force and that these measures as a whole have inflicted deep and unprecedented pain on the island.
On the blacklist
Among the measures implemented by the new administration is keeping Cuba on the so-called list of state sponsors of terrorism, with immediate consequences, including deterring foreign authorities and companies from doing business with Havana, a new order to curb remittances through Western Union, and, more recently, seeking to impose further restrictions on the tourism sector by increasing the number of hotels prohibited to US travelers. In addition, the State Department intends to sanction nations that invite Cuban medical brigades, including expressing annoyance with Mexico in this regard.
For now, US exports to Cuba are growing, although all this business is in cash, as the measures prevent the use of banks and other financial institutions. Exports of food and agricultural products—soybean and jojoba oil, coffee extracts, and tires, among others—valued at $205 million were made in the first five months of 2025, an increase of 16.6 percent compared to the same period last year. Trade in new and used vehicles, trucks, and motorcycles has also increased.
“Since the first exports of corn, wheat, and rice in December 2001, Cubans have purchased approximately $8 billion in agricultural and food products paid for in cash. These sales have been consistent over the past 24 years, ranking among the top 50 countries—out of about 200—for U.S. exports,” explains Kavulich. Transportation equipment sales, he adds, are on track to reach $100 million by the end of 2025.
Cuba is the safest export market for US companies because they can’t let us down; it’s all cash. He explains that other countries, and Cuba in particular, often fail to make payments when they are made through credit or financing.
But Kavulich blames the governments in Washington and Havana for failing to build more on the trade opening and great opportunities in the recent past. He recalls that agricultural exports began in 2002, under the administration of then-President George W. Bush, when Fidel Castro welcomed a large fair of US products, and then there was another major breakthrough with the normalization of relations under Barack Obama.
Kavulich criticizes Obama and his counterparts in Havana for not following up on the opportunities they opened up. The Democratic administration shied away from establishing financing mechanisms, while the Cuban regime, while welcoming more trade, was reluctant to allow direct investment in the island by US companies.
When Trump first arrived in the White House in 2017, US companies exporting to Cuba and governors who benefited from agricultural trade with the island decided to keep a low profile and not draw attention to those economic relations.
Things could get more complicated, Kavulich notes, if this administration wants to cause more damage by imposing greater restrictions on the use of banks in third countries. He believes that Trump is likely to go after a foreign company with business in Cuba as a symbolic gesture, choosing one that will not cause a major problem with the host country; however, he predicts that they will not proceed against companies in Mexico, Canada, or India.
Despite the statements from the administration in Washington, policy toward Cuba has not changed, and like his Democratic predecessor, he justifies his actions in the name of supporting the Cuban people, who are increasingly suffering the serious consequences of the same policy of suffocation.
Source: La Jornada, translation Resumen Latinoamericano – English