By Juarez Guimarães on October 6, 2026
Lula heads to the runoff. President Lula is running for reelection | foto: Miguel Schincariol/AFP
The first round of the presidential election ended with 47.03% of the vote for Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) and 45.16% for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), a result that surprised many people, although polling firms had already indicated that the senator’s campaign was banking on the “tactical voting” narrative in the final stretch, encouraging a shift of votes away from non-competitive candidates.
The electorate’s choice for the National Congress—with increased representation for the PL, a party that today embodies Bolsonarism—also sent a message to Brazil’s current political system itself.
In an interview with Brazil de Fato, BdF Entrevista, Juarez Guimarães, a professor of political science at the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG) and a member of the Board of Trustees of the Perseu Abramo Institute, assesses that the country is experiencing significant instability in which “the two main presidential candidates were unable to secure a clear and stable majority.”
According to Guimarães, however, Flávio Bolsonaro’s rise is driven by several factors that contribute to what he defines as the resilience of “Bolsonarism.” One of these stems from the acceptance that Flávio’s candidacy has garnered, as he appears immune to any revelations of involvement in scandals and corruption.
“It is a brutal normalization of Flávio Bolsonaro’s candidacy in the face of his already widely documented ties to organized crime and corruption, in addition to the entire legacy he inherited from the Bolsonaro family and the attempted coup against democracy,” he states.
Another point cited by the analyst is the powerful “digital disinformation machine,” coordinated internationally, while the left faces difficulties due to popular dissatisfaction with the economic situation. There is a coordinated structure of power and digital networks that “organizes these sudden shifts in voter sentiment that polls fail to capture,” the professor continues. Added to this, according to Guimarães, “there was a significant underestimation of the political strength of Bolsonarism” from the start of the campaign.
For Lula to turn the tide and win in the runoff, Juarez Guimarães advocates a shift in stance and a direct reconnection with the demands of the working class and those who decided not to vote or cast invalid ballots. “Our message falls short of the aspirations of the Brazilian people,” he reflects.
According to him, it is also necessary to reduce voter abstention and present a vision for the future that aligns with the search for hope. “We have to get more people to vote. We must focus, above all, on that immense group of people who did not vote, abstained, or cast a null vote. It is a very significant group. Second, we have to increase the rejection of—and fear of—a possible victory by Flávio Bolsonaro,” he states.
“I think there are fundamental issues we should be working on. The first is that the campaign must promise—and has the legitimacy to do so—a new future for Brazil through a comprehensive proposal to build a ‘State of Good Living’ in Brazil,” he argues.
Among the key proposals to mobilize the streets, he lists ending the 6×1 work schedule without a pay cut, implementing free public transportation, and tackling high interest rates so that the population once again feels a recovery in purchasing power. “This must be countered in a very concrete way against Flávio Bolsonaro’s platform, which takes exactly the opposite stance—one that is extremely destructive to the rights of the working classes,” he concludes.
Source: Brazil de Fato, translation, Resumen Latinoamericano – English